- On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25000–24948. A break below these levels and sustained weakness could drag Nifty to 24897–24845.
- Bank Nifty Outlook:
- Spot: 55698.50 | PCR: 0.71 | Max CE OI: 57000 | Max PE OI: 57000
- On 20th August 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 55698.50, down 166.65 points (-0.30%).
- The index moved 235.25 points during the session, making a high of 55812.60 and a low of 55577.35.
- Technical View:
- Key support and resistance are placed at 55450 and 56000.
- Intraday support and resistance are at 55633 and 55765.
- Intraday Strategy:
- Go long above 55765 with stop loss 55740 and target 55825.
- Go short below 55630 with stop loss 55655 and target 55570.
- The RSI stands at 47.30, indicating neutral momentum (below 30 oversold, above 70 overbought).
- Bank nifty Day SMA Analysis:
- Bank nifty is trading above 5 out of 8 SMA’s (5, 10, 100, 150, 200 Day).
- Bank nifty is trading below 3 out of 8 SMA’s. (20, 30, 50 Day)
- No active candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
- Macros:
- 1.Dollar index @ 98.155
- 2.Vix @ 15.69 ( +.77%)
- 3.Brent crude @ 67.11
- 4.U.S. 10 years bond yield @ 4.295
- Note: Wall Street indexes were spooked by hawkish signals from the Fed’s July meeting minutes. The minutes showed most Fed members backed a wait-and-see approach on rate cuts, amid concerns over the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
- Markets trimmed bets on a September rate cut after the minutes. Fed fund futures now price an 80.6% chance of a 25 bps cut, down from 84.4% a day earlier, CME FedWatch showed.
- In Indian markets, FIIs remain in selling mode with heavy shorts in the index (FIIs net long at just 9.99%, meaning 90% still short). Some short covering is expected.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, which may offer more policy cues. His speech follows softer July readings on consumer inflation and payrolls, which had earlier boosted hopes for a September rate cut.
- ———————————————
- Data watch
- 1.Fiis net long 9.9 % (Highly oversold).
- 2.Fiis sold 1100 cr in cash segment, sold 323.31 cr in index and 1067.57 in stock fut
- 3.Vix @ 11.78 (-0.08%)
- 4.Pcr @ 1.34 (weekly) , 1.11 (monthly)
- Note: Fiis net long position is @ 9.9 % still in highly over sold zone , Fiis again sold in all the segment Directional selling by Fiis is 2491 cr & Diis bought 1806 cr in cash segment.
- Pcr ratio is weekly expire is @ 1.34 still @ comfortable level but will get in overbought zone soon so a mild dip is expected form higher zone and that will be buying opportunity as Vix again is hovering around 12 & Fiis net long is @ 9.9 in highly oversold zone.
- Lower vix ( 11.78 ) & Higher Pcr ratio i.e @ 1.34 ( if goe around 1.75-1.85 ) a mild dip of 100-125 points may come .
- We mentioned many times in last 10-12 days lower Vix & fiis net long indicating shorts will be covered soon , Now 25133 will be immediate hurdle if nifty able to close above 25133 ( mark my words nifty shorts will cover & will go up to 25380-25450.
Money Times Weekly 21st August
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