Money Times Talk – 02/09/2025

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Although Money Times recommendation have outperformed other media, stock brokers and research houses, the brief recommendations under Money Times Talk (MTT) cannot display ‘BUY’, ‘SELL’ or ‘HOLD’ recommendations. Readers should, therefore, exercise their own judgement and evaluate the future prospects of the stock given its past performance, industry prospects in the backdrop of a growing economy and in consultation with their investment adviser.

• As per astrology view, some important turning dates are 1, 3, 5, 8, 11 & 16^th September 2025.

• Why GMP is Misleading: GMPs mostly come from websites/WhatsApp groups, driven by rumours and operators. They usually drop after IPO closes and even more post allotment, having no real link with listing price. Small investors should avoid SME IPOs without knowing the company, as operators pump GMP only to trap them.

• IPO Allotment Alert: The new SME IPO allotment rule has shifted lots to small HNIs (Rs.3–10 lakh), leading to profit-booking selling pressure on listing. Despite high GMP, ~80% SME IPOs now list below it. As per market veteran, supply has risen, demand shrunk, and even mainboard IPOs see quick exits. Hence, focus only on IPOs with strong business quality and fundamentals, as pure listing gain bets are now risky.

• Investors should stay cautious on export-oriented shares to the US in sectors like services, pharma, electronics and semiconductors. The ball is now in the Indian Govt’s court, which may cut GST and roll out incentives to lower production costs for textiles, leather, gems & jewellery, marine, chemicals and auto components.

• FIIs have pulled out $13 billion this year, taking foreign ownership to a 15-year low, while DIIs infused over $185 billion, reflecting strong domestic confidence. With India’s earnings cycle turning positive and profit growth expected to sustain in double digits, FIIs may return aggressively once valuation comfort emerges.

• As per market veteran, the silent killer for traders is overconfidence after a win. The real danger isn’t after a loss but after a big win, when dopamine makes you feel invincible and tempts you to break rules. 1. Revenge-sizing – doubling positions and chasing quick wealth. 2. Rule-breaking – ignoring stop-loss, skipping signals, taking excess risk. 3. Impulse trades – entering weak setups feeling “untouchable.” 4. Lock-in rules ignored – not booking partial profits, overstaying positions, and letting gains slip away. Case Study: A trader wins Rs.10,000, feels unstoppable, doubles risk, ignores lock-in rules, and ends up losing Rs.40,000. Lesson – it wasn’t the market, it was mindset. The antidote: reset after every win, return to baseline risk, lock in partial profits, journal trades, and remind yourself – “Each trade is new, the market owes me nothing.” The real edge is discipline and humility, not euphoria.

• In 21^st June MTTs, India Nippon Electrics given at Rs.707 touched Rs.847 – a gain of 20%, Simmonds Marshall given at Rs.125 touched Rs.161 & even now at Rs.147 looks very good.

• In 5^TH July MTTs, VST Trillers given at Rs.3956 touched Rs.5519 – a bumper gain of 40% during the week in highly bearish market sentiments.

• In 2^nd August MTTs, Simmonds Marshall given at Rs.139 touched Rs.161 & now even at Rs.147 looks very good.

• In 16^th August MTTs, Modern Insulators given at Rs.113 touched Rs.127 & now again at Rs.116 looks very good, Pudumjee Paper Products given at Rs.123 touched Rs.148, Ruchira Papers given at Rs.135 touched Rs.154, during the week during the week in highly negative market sentiments.

• Debt free Sree Rayalaseema Hi-Strength Hypo posted FY25 PAT of Rs.92.68 cr. and declared 30% dividend. Share trades at a PE of 9.7x vs sector 48x, BV Rs.537. Its Q1FY26 EPS stood at Rs.13.64, which may lead to FY26 EPS of Rs.55+. Exploring entry into semiconductors-PCB and real estate. Backed by strong promoter lineage, stock at Rs.577 (cum dividend) looks attractive vs 52W high Rs.944.

• Jayant Infratech posted 122% higher H2FY25 PAT of Rs.5.56 cr. and FY25 PAT up 73% to Rs.8.41 cr. Stock trades at a PE of 10.6, ROCE of 22.4%, ROE of 19.3%. Recently won Rs.34 cr. order for track doubling in Assam. With 45.3% profit CAGR in 5 yrs and strong railway expansion theme, stock looks attractive at Rs.88 vs lifetime high Rs.344.

• Everest Kanto Cylinders posted higher Q1FY26 PAT of Rs.51.58 cr. from Rs.13.27 cr. Stock trades at a PE of 13x and BV of Rs.108. Stock is available at very attractive valuations of Rs.137 v/s its life time high of Rs.385.

• Debt free Chennai Ferrous Industries posted Q1FY26 PAT jumped 1126% QoQ to Rs.2.33 cr. on tiny equity of Rs.3.60 cr. Promoters hold 67.78%. BV Rs.144, stock trades at 0.85x BV, PE of 9.5x. At Rs.124, stock looks attractive vs lifetime high Rs.374 with scope for rerating.

• Somi Conveyor Beltings Q1FY26 PAT rose 64% to Rs.1.21 cr. with 24% profit CAGR over 5 yrs. Its Order book stood above Rs.80 cr. with Rs.12 cr. expansion in FY26. Strong mining & infra capex may drive more orders. No exposure to US tariffs. Stock looks attractive at Rs.140 vs 52W high Rs.228.

• Denis Chem Lab maker of sterile intravenous injectables, Q1FY26 PAT surged 249% QoQ to Rs.2.48 cr. Dividend 15%, ex-date 19 Sept 2025. Foreign investors hold 20.74%, HNIs 10.53%. Stock attractive at Rs.93 vs lifetime high Rs.233.