Daily Morning Report Date: 01.10.2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 24611.10 FII -2327.09 cr DII 5761.63 cr
As discussed yesterday, market behaviour remained on expected lines. Nifty faced resistance at 24725 (made a high of 24731.80) and from there slipped to an intraday low of 24587.7, close to our support of 24591.
A series of three consecutive bearish candles, each closing lower than the previous one, has appeared on the daily chart. This indicates bearish dominance and weakness in Nifty. A decisive breakdown of 24567 may drag it further to 24525–24481, and if supply intensifies, it may even test 24437.
However, the candle bodies are getting shorter and the gap between closes is narrowing, suggesting the downtrend is losing momentum. If Nifty crosses 24655, it may rally to 24700–24741, and on strong demand, extend up to 24784.
Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
SPOT: 54635.85 Pcr: 0.95 Max CE OI: 57000 Max PE OI: 54000
On 30th September 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 54635.85 (+174.85 / +0.32%). The total movement in the index was 290.10, with a high of 54793.05 and a low of 54502.95.
Technical View:
Support & Resistance: 54000 / 55100
Intraday Support & Resistance: 54556 / 54715
Strategy:
• Go long above 54715 with SL 54689 and target 54795
• Go short below 54556 with SL 54582 and target 54476
RSI for Nifty Bank is at 45.10. (Below 30 = oversold, above 70 = overbought).
Bank nifty Day SMA Analysis:
Bank nifty is trading above 2 out of 8 SMA’s (150, 200 Day).
Bank nifty is trading below 6 out of 8 SMA’s. (5, 10, 20, 30 50,100, Day)
No candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
Macros:
1.Dollar index is @ 97.375
2.S&P 500 Vix is @ 16.34 (+0.22)
3.Brent crude is @ 66.44
4.US 10 years bond yield is @ 4.125
Note:
U.S. job openings rose marginally in August while hiring declined, reflecting softening labor market conditions. This may give the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates again next month despite resilient consumer spending.
India’s trade pact with four European nations, including Switzerland and Norway, will take effect from Wednesday. The agreement is expected to boost exports of textiles, leather, and food products, while also attracting investments. Sensitive sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and key farm products remain protected, with no change in the effective duty on gold imports.
India is the fifth-largest trading partner of EFTA after the EU, U.S., Britain, and China, with total trade of $25 billion in 2023. The pact is expected to spur Swiss investment, as it slashes tariffs on exports ranging from chocolates to watches and machinery.
With its $4 trillion economy, 1.4 billion population, and annual growth of nearly 7%, India is increasingly seen as an attractive alternative to China amid U.S. tariff pressure. However, India currently faces a trade deficit of about $20.47 billion with the EFTA bloc, exporting goods worth $1.97 billion while imports stand at $2.44 billion.
Conclusion:
India is diversifying its trade partnerships beyond the U.S., engaging with nations like Brazil, Peru, the U.K., and African countries. While near-term benefits from EFTA may be limited, the bloc has committed to investing $100 billion in India over 15 years, which the government estimates will create 1 million direct jobs. This positions India to secure long-term industrial growth and employment at home.
Data watch
1.Fiis net long is @ 5.9%
2.Vix is @ 11.06 ( -2.73% )
3.Pcr weekly is @ 0.72 , Montly is @ 1.03
4.Fiis sold 2327 in cash segment , Index fut sold worth 2716.60 cr & added 654 cr stock fut
5.Open interest of instituions and Retail ( on montly expire these data will of no use )
Note : Again today we saw range bond trading , volumes were also low today we will not get nay clear picture on index today .
Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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