BROKER & STRATEGY UPDATES
HSBC on Avenue Supermart
Reduce, TP Rs 3,700
Pricing comparison vs peers points to shrinking differential.
Pricing remains the key moat for Dmart vs other retailers.
Challenges to sustaining high SSSG.
Valuation sensitive to SSSG – 1% increase → 11% higher fair value.
Store addition expectations unlikely to offset muted SSSG.
MS on Titan
Overweight, TP Rs 3,953
2Q Tanishq, Mia, and Zoya (TMZ) business revenue ex-bullion +18% YoY vs 12% estimate.
Buyer growth for TMZ slightly declined YoY; ticket size rose due to higher gold prices.
Growth aided by festive promotions and marketing initiatives.
Studded jewellery mid-teens revenue growth; gold coins sustained growth trajectory.
Bernstein on Titan
Maintains Outperform, TP ₹4,200
Jewellery revenue +20% YoY driven by festive and wedding demand, ahead of estimates.
Tanishq LFL growth and new store additions beat expectations.
Margins may be under pressure due to higher advertising, discounts, and gold price volatility.
JPMorgan on Titan
Neutral, TP ₹3,500
Festive offers drove healthy jewellery growth.
Revenue growth supported by gold prices; positive share price reaction expected.
Jefferies on Lodha Developers
Buy, TP Rs 1,625
Beneficiary of Mumbai infra upgrade; 2nd international airport opening supports land value gains.
4,500-acre land bank well-placed; Mumbai expansion and presales growth of 20% expected.
Ex-Palava business trades at 2x EV/sales – attractive entry point.
Nomura on Lodha Developers
Buy, TP Rs 1,450
2QFY26 presales in line with estimates.
43% of FY26 pre-sales guidance achieved in 1HFY26.
Robust launch pipeline +INR100bn for 2HFY26E supports guidance of INR210bn pre-sales.
Nuvama on Lodha Developers
Buy, TP Rs 1,580
Full-year business guidance achieved in H1FY26.
Net debt rose 290 cr QoQ to ~₹5,370 cr.
29% YoY pre-sales growth required in H2FY26 to meet ₹21,000 cr booking guidance.
MMR & Pune housing demand moderation a near-term challenge; Bengaluru resilient.
Nomura on Tata Motors
Neutral, TP Rs 732
2QFY26F JLR EBIT margin ~1%.
Volume disruptions may drag FCF down by GBP 750mn; expected recovery as production resumes.
Stock trades at 4.9x FY27F EV/EBITDA.
MS on GCPL
Overweight, TP Rs 1,413
2QFY26 results in line; India and GAUM perform well.
Indonesia low-single-digit revenue decline (-4%) with slightly positive volume growth.
GAUM shows double-digit growth for third consecutive quarter.
Management confident of full-year targets; better 2H expected.
Nuvama on GCPL
Buy, TP Rs 1,450
Revenue growth +6% YoY; EBITDA down 3% YoY due to GST transition.
Home Care +8% YoY; Personal Care may dip 2% YoY.
Indonesia slight revenue decline; volumes positive.
Stronger H2FY26 expected.
UBS on IGL
Buy, TP Rs 250
End of tax overhang; near 20% upside to EBITDA.
Pipeline tariff reforms supportive; tailwinds for growth and profitability.
IGL tax charged at 2% vs 15% earlier for Gujarat-sourced gas.
Investec on Petronet LNG
Buy, TP Rs 400
Short-term weakness; strong long-term opportunity.
Global LNG supply glut may ease prices, boosting demand.
Well-positioned with low-cost structure and capacity expansions at Dahej & Kochi.
UBS on PSU Banks
Canara Bank Buy, TP Rs 150
Union Bank Neutral, TP Rs 150
PNB Neutral, TP Rs 120
Sector risk-reward neutral; growth outlook modest.
Credit cost controlled; lower core PPoP reduces cushion to RoAs.
UBS on Canara Bank
Target Rs 150, Buy
Steady earnings; ROA/ROE ~1%/16% over FY26-28E.
Loan growth steady; NIM pressure low; credit cost controlled.
UBS on Union Bank
Target Rs 150, Neutral
Modest growth; slower loan growth limits ROA upside.
Margin stable; credit cost stable; ROA ~1%.
UBS on PNB
Target Rs 120, Neutral
Return ratios low; growth steady; near-term NIMs pressured.
Credit cost to rise slightly; ROA to decline.
MS India Strategy
Q2 base for next earnings cycle.
Low-single-digit profit growth; high-single-digit revenue growth distorted by one-offs.
Margins expected to expand in 5 of 10 sectors; Energy & Communication Services likely to improve.
CITI on Banks
Draft directions to reduce risk-weights, boost capital adequacy.
Limited impact on most banks; adverse for high 30-90 DPD exposures & PSBs.
Key beneficiaries: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, SBI; housing, SME, credit cards exposure helps.
CLSA on Financials
RBI draft circular positive for banks & SBI Cards.
Lower risk-weights for MSME, credit cards, and real estate loans.
10ppt reduction in risk-weight → Tier-1 ratios +40-60 bps.
MOSL on SBI Cards
Neutral, TP Rs 950
Corporate & retail spends to grow; ~18% CAGR FY25-28E.
2Q festive spending may limit NIM expansion.
Funding cost moderation & possible RBI rate cuts to lift margins to 11.9% by FY27E.
Credit cost elevated at ~8.5% FY26E (>9% in 2Q); expected to improve in 2H.
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