Jefferies on Cement Sector – Prices Hold as Intense Monsoon Ends
• Cement prices (ex-GST related changes) were marginally lower by 0.5% MoM
• YTD FY26 prices are tracking 5-6% higher YoY versus FY26 estimate of +4% YoY
• For Q2, prices (ex-GST) remained relatively steady with a 1-1.5% dip QoQ despite severe monsoons impacting demand
• GST rate cut from 28% to 18% has reflected in cement companies passing on the benefit
Nuvama on APL Apollo Tubes
• Maintains BUY rating with a target price of ₹2,039 (earlier ₹1,941)
• Q2FY26 sales at 855k tons, up 13% YoY and 8% QoQ — highest quarterly volumes despite weak demand
• Channel demand remains subdued due to liquidity crunch
• APL offers discounts on general structures, while VAP products maintain premium pricing
• VAP mix rose to 57% from 55% last year
• EBITDA/ton expected at ₹4,900, supported by operating leverage and no ESOP costs
• Valuation at 36x Q2FY28E EPS
Motilal Oswal (MOSL) on Amara Raja
• Maintains Neutral rating with a target price of ₹1,030
• First gigafactory (2GWh) on track for SOP by 1HCY27
• OE demand rising post-GST; replacement demand yet to recover
• Lead costs stable QoQ; tubular plant may add 300-400 bps margin
• Recycling plant can save 30-40 bps; power costs elevated for one more quarter
• ₹2,500 crore invested so far in gigafactory, R&D, and customer qualification plants
• Further funding planned for ₹6,000-7,000 crore 16GWh project
• Business expected to deliver 10-11% EBITDA at 10GWh scale
Nuvama on Amara Raja
• Maintains BUY rating with a target price of ₹1,120
• 2W aftermarket demand expected to grow 6-7%; 4W demand to rise 10-11% in FY26E
• EBITDA margin projected to improve from 11.5% in Q1FY26 to 13% in Q4FY26E and 14% in FY27E
• Lead Acid Battery (LAB) business expected to remain resilient for the next 1-2 decades
• LAB segment likely to outpace industry growth by 3-5%, supported by market share gains and exports
• Phase 1 of the lithium cell plant (1GWh NMC chemistry) deferred to H2FY27E from FY26
• Lithium asset turnover expected at 1x
• Target price based on 15x Sep-27E EPS for LAB, ₹169/share for lithium, and ₹42/share for investments
Nuvama on LG Electronics India
• Maintains BUY rating
• LG Electronics India remains a robust brand with strong parentage
• Consumer durables industry expected to grow at 8-10% CAGR, from ₹96,900 crore in CY24 to ₹1.44-1.59 lakh crore by CY29E
• LGEIL revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew at CAGR of 8%/5%/6% over FY19-25, with 14%/37%/44% YoY growth in FY25
• Median post-tax ROCE/ROIC stood at 34%/89%, rising to 45%/106% in FY25
• Announced USD 600 mn capex for a third unit to expand capacity for domestic and export markets
• Stock currently priced at 35.6x FY25 EPS
CLSA Price Action – Laurence Balanco
• Outlook for Nifty remains unchanged amid lack of follow-through, resulting in consolidation within a defined range
• Current range: 24,337–24,432 (lower end) and 25,448–25,669 (upper end)
• Just below the lower boundary lies a key support zone
• This area represents a confluence of the 200-DMA and the upper boundary of the February–April basing pattern
Jefferies on Allied Blenders
• Maintains BUY rating with a target price of ₹620
• Backward integration plans on track with addition of PET bottle manufacturing facility and ongoing malt distillery work
• Single malt launch expected in 4–5 years
• Distillery expansion in Maharashtra and backward integration to drive 300 bps margin uplift over FY25–28E
• These initiatives expected to strengthen the franchise in key states
Morgan Stanley India Strategy – Ridham Desai: Gunning for Growth
• Equity market may be underestimating the likely turn in the growth cycle
• While global factors affect relative performance, earnings and market peak are still ahead
• India’s low beta implies outperformance in global bear markets but underperformance in bull markets
• Preference remains for Domestic Cyclicals over Defensives and External-facing sectors
Morgan Stanley on Axis Bank
• Maintains Overweight rating; target price raised to ₹1,450 from ₹1,325
• Revisiting the turnaround story; significant progress made over the past year
• Bank expected to gain traction as macro climate improves
• Re-rating relative to large private banks expected to be gradual
Morgan Stanley on Kotak Bank
• Maintains Overweight rating with target price of ₹2,600
• Expects share price to outperform the industry over the next 30 days
• Positive outlook driven by strong setup and exposure to segments benefiting from macro recovery
• After two years of headwinds, the bank is now well-positioned with rising disbursements and stable margins
JP Morgan on Auto Sector
• September 2025: commentary more important than data
• Maruti underperformed in wholesale but was in line in retail; Hero remains a laggard
• M&M continues to outperform in PVs and tractors
• 2W wholesale and retail showed similar trends
Morgan Stanley on Real Estate
• Q2 performance not weak despite seasonal factors
• Top five developers expected to post Q2 pre-sales of Rs. 11,000 cr, up 44% YoY
• H1 reached 55% of full-year FY26 estimate
• Godrej and DLF likely to report stronger pre-sales than expected, while Lodha and Oberoi may disappoint
Goldman Sachs on L&T
• Maintains Neutral rating with target price of ₹3,540
• Expects a strong quarter with market focus shifting to FY27
• Anticipates double-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA, and PAT, backed by a robust order book
• Order inflow expected to rise 15% YoY
• EPC and offshore structure installations in the Middle East expected to be included
Paras Defence – Secures ₹46 Cr Defence Order for Anti-Drone Systems
• Order received from Ministry of Defence, Government of India
• Contract worth ₹46.19 cr (including GST) for supply of Anti-Drone Systems and Drone Jammers
• Execution timeline by March 2026 (tentative)
• Domestic defence order strengthens credibility in strategic defence technology
• Positive impact — reinforces positioning in anti-drone tech and supports revenue visibility
Adani Ports – September Business Update
• Records all-time high H1 cargo and rail volumes
• September 2025 cargo handled at 41.6 MMT, up 11% YoY, led by containers (+14% YoY)
• H1 FY26 cargo at 244.2 MMT, up 11% YoY — highest ever half-yearly volume
• September rail volume at 60,640 TEUs, up 22% YoY; GPWIS flat at 1.63 MMT
• H1 FY26 rail volume at 358,406 TEUs, up 15% YoY; GPWIS at 10.98 MMT, up 3% YoY
• Strong positive impact — record volumes reflect robust trade activity, container growth, and higher logistics contribution
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